Investor Advice

Investor Advice

Opportunistic investors are willing to accept more risk in the anticipation of a higher return. Traditional institutional investors want secure properties with transparent data on occupancy rates, cash flows and operating costs.

A typical pension fund manager looks for stable properties, invests for 10- to 20 years and is happy with a 3- to 5% return. Opportunistic investors take on more risk for shorter periods and seek much higher returns. A portfolio manager looking to diversify a small portion of a client’s capital might look to invest in a less transparent market for a 3- to 5-year period with the expectation of a 20% or more return.

The International Property Markets Scorecard is a tool that can be used by opportunistic investors in markets where there is very little transparent market data. The Scorecard lays out the strengths of the institutional support for property markets in a country. It can be used as a proxy for making emerging market investment decisions when there is not enough trusted data on transactions. The Scorecard is currently being used, among others, as a part of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) project on increasing international trade in the Balkans.

Upper-Middle Income Economies as defined by the World Bank are excellent targets for opportunistic investors as these countries have relative political stability, a growing middle class, developing professional services and progressing adaptation of international standards. AlbaniaMontenegro and North Macedonia were the upper-middle income countries included in the UNECE project with Romania (high-income) and the Kyrgyz Republic (lower-middle income) for comparison.

The Scorecard research shows that basic property rights are strong in Montenegro, North Macedonia and Romania. Albania and the Kyrgyz Republic are still coping with the transition from state-controlled economies, so property rights remain weak. However, in all these countries, the enforcement of property rights remains a risk for investors. All of the examined countries have weak independent judiciary and dispute resolution can cost time and money. As with investment in any country, contracts should include a mandatory arbitration clause to avoid the courts and the ensuing drain on the investment.
Access to credit also remains a problem. While opportunistic investors are not overly concerned with lending, the lack of venture capital and a strong stock market in these countries makes them highly dependent on the Central Banks and increases investor risk from currency fluctuations and banking collapse. Montenegro and Romania have stronger financial transparency, so investors should be able to find independent asset valuers to help them price risk.
Albania, Romania and North Macedonia have a degree of effective governance including the ability for citizens to petition the government and relatively free markets. The primary risk for investors in all of these countries is government regulation. While most of these countries have a favorable taxation system – with the notable exception of Albania – they all lack licensed and regulated professional services. Regulations across the spectrum are likely to conflict and the governments lack the resources and will to enforce most regulations. They also lack efficient capital markets so that capital can grow and be reallocated.
Of course, opportunistic investors are ready to accept risk if they can price it and mitigate it with insurance, leverage, partnership and other tools. The new International Property Markets Scorecards for Albania, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Romania, and the Kyrgyz Republic can give investors an understanding of the entire property market system and the risk factors in each country.

These Scorecards can be used to develop strategies for market entry and higher returns in countries that are eager for direct foreign investment. Each investor will have different objectives and risk tolerance, so there are opportunities in each of these countries. Examples include the purchase and rehabilitation of distressed assets or public-private partnerships for infrastructure improvements. Whatever the case, these Scorecards are a valuable tool that can be used by opportunistic investors as well the governments, advocates and reformers in each country to help attract investment and improve the lives of citizens.

Risk

“Men will risk their lives, even die for ribbons”. ― Napoléon Bonaparte

While I am sure it sounded better in French, the sentiment remains. We are terrible at judging risk and even worse at putting our lives on the line for the right reason. Bamboozled by greed, anger and ignorance; we spend our days chasing after the phantoms our corporate overlords have fashioned into the shallow pool of commerce. Ginned up at the slightest provocation to hate, we then cleanse ourselves with a post, click or online purchase.

Now that we have fouled our nest so much that Mother Nature has put us in time out, maybe we should reevaluate the currency of our lives. Petulant to the end, we are certain this peril does not apply to us as long as we have the symbols of success – the pins, ribbons and security of home and acceptance. Until everyone has home and acceptance, no one will have security.

The solutions are always simple. Do the work. Appreciate the love you have. Be the first to forgive. Determine to build a future based on value, truth and beauty.

Library

To meet the challenges posed by the scale and scope of urbanization in the context of global uncertainty, disruptive and destructive change, requires a true sense of urgency.” H.E. Mohammad Ashraf Ghani, President of Afghanistan

From February 8-13, I attended UN-Habitat’s World Urban Forum 10 in Ahu Dhabi. President Ashraf Ghani of Afghanistan and H.E. Josaia V. Bainimarama, Prime Minister of the Republic of Fifi were the speakers representing the world’s governments at the opening ceremony. One from a country that continues to suffer from forty years of futile wars brought on by the sociopathic men who we continue to mislabel leaders, and one from a country that will quite literally disappear because of our inability to take care of mother earth.

I was there for the debut of FIABCI’s The City We Need is Affordable Vol. IV at the Library in the Urban Village created in the Exhibition Hall as an example of an inclusive city. This was my second time participating in the Forum focused on changing the trajectory of our future from one based on greed, anger and ignorance; to one focused on culture, innovation and compassion. Once again it was the women who were clear-headed and filled with practical ideas of how to reverse the damage done by profit-seeking above all else.

The UN has declared this a Decade of Action toward the Sustainable Development Goals and Mother Nature has now made sure we all realize this is about us and the urgent actions we take today, but more importantly the community building actions we take tomorrow when the world opens back up. The theme of the fourth volume of The City We Need is Affordable is “housing is a human right.” One case in the book is about Finland’s Housing First model which says that homeless people must be provided housing first, rather that after they have cleaned up their lives and become respectable as is the requirement in most places. Another is how modular homes donated by the people of Hawaii to the victims of the Tohoku earthquake in Japan were disassembled and shipped back to Honolulu to house the homeless.

While it may be easy to succumb to the sensationalism our feckless media continues to spew, we have had the ability to build community and take care of our neighbor all along. We are the ones who have given up control based on the false notion that the stock market is an indicator of prosperity and someone else will do the hard work of rooting out evil. After we emerge from this period of incubation, we either band together and build a new affordable, inclusive, safe and resilient world or we leave our future to the same vultures who created and sold the poison of every man for himself.

Distraction

“Clever gimmicks of mass distraction yield a cheap soulcraft of addicted and self-medicated narcissists.” Cornel West

Which came first the ignorance or the violence? The solution lies in understanding the true cause. We have been pushed so far off course by the oligarchs and their perpetual war machine that we don’t even bother to treat the symptoms of our collective psychosis much less the cause. “Everyone’s got a gimmick now,” we learn from the first African American superhero in the Captain America movies. Now that’s progress!

Narcissus’s cool, clear pond has been replaced by our device screens and no matter how much our community loves us or begs for contribution, we post and click certain that with enough exposure on social media, we are filling our need as social animals. Thus we reinforce our insecurities and rage about how everyone else has caused our injury.

Do something. The remedy for distraction is authentic interaction with another person. Next try it in a group of people (real people). Today’s divisiveness and chaos was caused by our dismissal of each other. The only solution is to return the focus to people rather than commerce.

Capitalism

“Capitalism does not permit an even flow of economic resources. With this system, a small privileged few are rich beyond conscience, and almost all others are doomed to be poor at some level. That’s the way the system works. And since we know that the system will not change the rules, we are going to have to change the system.” Martin Luther King, Jr.

Are you a capitalist? When I first started traveling the world, I told my family and friends I was spreading capitalism – particularly the “miracle of securitization”. This was in the early aughts prior to the Lehman Crash and I was an evangelist for residential mortgage bundling, selling off and pumping the money back into the system. Surely the finance, insurance and real estate sector could lift more people out of poverty and put them on the ladder to success if only other countries replicated the U.S. system.

Today when I ask my students if they are capitalists, they get a puzzled look on their faces. They are Master’s of Real Estate students, so I probe further to see if they understand how a capitalist system is supposed to work. “Make as much money as you can, right?” Wrong. Capital must be directed toward its most productive use. Profit is essential, but part of that profit must be reinvested in the means of production.

The quote above is from Martin Luther King’s 1964 march on DC for jobs and freedom. In the ensuing years the distortion of our economy continued apace until even the privileged few felt the effects of their excessive greed and the deliberate starving the system that includes workers, small businesses and essential infrastructure. Rather than learn from the crash, our oligarchs merely took at time out, got triage from the government and reemerged stronger and ready to make sure they get theirs before the music stops again.

Six Democratic Socialist were recently elected to the Chicago City Council. They were elected because pragmatic Chicagoans were fed up with the shills for free market capitalism who time after time failed to deliver affordable housing, economic opportunity or an effective counter to the corrupt machine that continues to line the pockets of pin-striped insiders. The day of reckoning has arrived and whatever we label it, we must remember our power and take back our right to control our economic destiny.

Myth

If the doors of perception were cleansed everything would appear to man as it is, Infinite. For man has closed himself up, till he sees all things through narrow chinks of his cavern.
– William Blake

Africa is not what you think. Our Colonial Masters have taught us that it is a backward, threatening place. Arabs are not our enemy. China was done with empires long ago. The myths continue. Our problems derive from our ever narrower world views.

Over the last year, I traveled to three continents and boiled in the soup of humanity. I ate Nasi lemak in KL, kebab in Dubai and goat soup in Lagos. Everywhere I saw how closely we are all connected and countless beautiful human interactions.

At the same time, many reduced their vision to a smaller and smaller screen. Where do we start to change the world? We start by building community. For every disruption, there must be a powerful counter. The purpose of the monster in the myth is to spur you to overcome your fears and inaction.

Stop feeding the chaos. Change your point of view. Take back your narrative.

Land

“As I went walking I saw a sign there
And on the sign it said “No Trespassing.”
But on the other side it didn’t say nothing,
That side was made for you and me.

In the shadow of the steeple I saw my people,
By the relief office I seen my people;
As they stood there hungry, I stood there asking
Is this land made for you and me?

Nobody living can ever stop me,
As I go walking that freedom highway;
Nobody living can ever make me turn back
This land was made for you and me.”

Woody Guthrie

The photo is from a Haleola’ili’ānapono in Honolulu (living building on correctly managed land). It is of the materials delivery system initially to get construction materials up the hill where the house sits and now used for getting the week’s Costco shop into the net-zero house – a home that produces 100% of its own energy and water. We toured the remarkable home at the end of our celebration of UN World Habitat Day.

During the conference on affordable housing, there was constant reference to land. Land price is one of the key drivers of housing costs. One myth is there is a shortage of land. There is a shortage of properly managed land. Vacant lots and empty building dot our landscapes while new “luxury” condo buildings go up for international investors to park their money.

In her message to the conference, Ms. Maimunah Mohd Sharif, UN Habitat Executive Director asked us to add an “R” to the paradigm of Reduce-Reuse-Recycle. Rethink – rethink how we use our land and the reason we develop real estate. Our problems are not intractable. In fact the solutions are quite simple. They may be difficult to execute, but our future depends on our ability to build communities rather than exclusive enclaves. We must rethink virtually every policy and system put in place since the “Me” Decade. Let’s all take action today to respect, renew and reclaim our land and our communities.

Inclusion

“Home is a place we all must find, child. It’s not just a place where you eat or sleep. Home is knowing. Knowing your mind, knowing your heart, knowing your courage. If we know ourselves, we’re always home, anywhere.” Glenda the Good Witch of the South, The Whiz

Today’s cyclone of hate has blown us to a new Oz. Dorothy found herself in a foreign land through no fault of her own; Alice through her own volition. Do they each deserve a place at the table?

FIABCI, the International Real Estate Federation recently published the third Volume of The City We Need is Affordable. Working on this collection of solutions for our affordable housing crisis, I found there are real estate professionals around the world with humanitarian goals. Medair, a Christian relief group continues to help remote villagers in Nepal rebuild their homes after the 2015 earthquake. The government of South Africa has new subsistence housing programs for migrant mining workers who have long been exploited for diamonds. The Russian State Corporation for Reforming Housing and Community Services has a computer game that teaches young children the importance of conserving energy, recycling and community service.

Oz can be a frightening place. People markedly different from us. Wounded charlatans flying around on Twitter brooms. The key is to create a coalition of the marginalized and keep moving through the dark forest. Toward this end FIABCI will be celebrating UN World Habitat Day at locations all around the world on October 1st to share the positive momentum of changing our mindset from can’t to can.

Cars

“In this new age, freedom had a very particular character. It was not the freedom to move as one pleased. It was the freedom for cars, and only cars alone, to move very quickly, unhindered by all of the other things that used to happen on streets.” Charles Montgomery, Happy City

“The overall reconstruction project at the Jane Byrne Interchange will improve safety and traffic flow for the more than 400,000 motorists who use it each day, while also enhancing mobility for bicyclists, pedestrians and transit users in the surrounding neighborhoods.” Illinois Department of Transportation

The photo is of the demolition of the Monroe Street Bridge over the expressway outside my condo. I haven’t driven since I left Memphis in 1988. Although the bridge will be rebuilt, I take great pleasure in the momentary disruption of the American way of cars before people.

I frequently walk into traffic. Near one of my friend’s apartment next to a university campus, there is a market crosswalk including large yellow signs. As a pedestrian I have the right of way when I am in a marked crosswalk but not unless I take the initiative and demand “enhanced mobility”. Rolling stops at stop signs and turning cars violating the cross walk is the norm not the exception. When a car has penetrated the crosswalk at a red light, I stand and wait for the car to back up and clear the crosswalk. But in most instances, the car can’t back up, so into traffic we all march.

Chicago has added dedicated bus lanes, bike lanes and even returning a section of Argyle Street to a “shared street” where pedestrians and shop keepers take precedence over cars. Next time you are behind the wheel, look out.

Happy

“What is moral is what you feel good after.” Ernest Hemingway

What makes a happy city? The tallest building? A sports championship? A hometown President?

Chicago has had all of those, also a devastating tragedy and rebirth. Chicago is the city that works, “hog butcher to the world.” Chicago is a happy city. Try and restrain your exuberance on the first warm day in May.

In The Geography of Human Life, Japanese educator Tsunesaburo Mackiguchi notes that the place where we were born is a highly significant factor in our happiness. Not because one coordinate is superior to another. Our home town is where we learned to understand how the world works – nature, planets, tribes.

“Happy Cities” was the theme of the 69th FIABCI World Congress in Dubai. I arrived in the desert oasis somewhat skeptical. How could Happy Cities be more than just a feel good theme? The opening Key Note by Charles Montgomery author of Happy City helped Change my mind. Through extensive research including psychological research measuring people’s emotional states as they moved through cityscapes, he proved that green space, plazas, varied streetscapes (as opposed to long, blank, uniform facades) make people feel better, more likely to stop, even help a stranger.

Surveys by the Knight Foundation and Gallup found that drivers such as openness, aesthetics and social offerings ranked higher on residential attachment than economic and educational opportunities and safety. While real estate professionals intuitively know what makes a great neighborhood, science is catching up to prove it’s way more than location. We must move away from the vogue of luxury and exclusion and work toward communities that are inclusive, walkable and filled with opportunities to interact with our neighbors.